OTT advice for Wall Street: Cord-cutting, cord-nevers are here to stay.

Hold your horses Brian! Brian Roberts of Comcast, that is. Yesterday, as you know, he moved his own stock 4% higher by teasing an “exciting reversal” of cable TV ‘cord-cutting’ subscriber trends. If you went looking for the numbers, you didn’t find them. They won’t release the numbers until later this month, which makes me wonder a bit whether Mr. Roberts got caught up in the marketing hype of CES. When did we decide that one data point is a trend?

But OK, no matter.

First the TV Bundle won’t break – but it is fragmenting already and will continue to do so. It’s already happening all around us – Aereo, YouTube, Netflix – it’s plain as day that a major secular trend is underway that is going to de-bundle and re-bundle content.

In fact, fragmentation of all kinds has proven to be one of those evergreen forces in video tech. Devices, audiences, genres — any reason to think the pay TV will be immune to that? 

First, major political forces — gadget & device companies, for one thing — have risen up in the past few years to push for it. Now congress is more divided over this previously settled matter.

It’s clear that bundles are important for the health of the business – but the make-up and offer of that bundle today is much pricier than anywhere else in the world. And as U.S. consumers face leaner economic times – that will translate into consumer force. Americans are suckers for “cheaper” even when it basically means “less”.

Then you have offerings like Aereo poised to teach us that paying $100 a month for something that used to be free. When our kids are only watching iTunes and the wife is binging on Netflix – well, that’s a lot of pressure.

Don’t forget the retina tablet — big enough for enjoyable viewing! And one that works. A bridge, if you will, until we get usable big screen OTT experiences. (Watch for my future post on how crappy the CableCard Xfinity TiVo OTT experience is. Depressing!!)

And importantly – further to the tablet — content mirroring. It’s a killer use case that works. It’s hard for me to understand why there has not been more focus on DIAL or DLNA or Miracast or Widi — because as a user experience, AirPlay is just crushing it!

I’m in love with the AirPlay experience. Finally found that awesome clip – run into the TV room – gather the family – and then, BOOM goes the dynamite – press that little button in the lower left corner and magically watch as your family is enraptured by that insanely awesome video. You know, the one with the Dad, in a DIY multi-cam, multi-instrument selfie video studio — singing & playing with his son & daughter. And they’re great! Wow. People are interesting.

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