Tweet storm: Why Netflix Might’ve Hit it’s US Subscriber Peak

This is a tweet storm, so, I can see like a thousand ways to clarify this below but in the interest of preserving the “quick take” of the tweet storm format, I’m leaving it alone!

1/ Here’s my Devil’s Advocate take on the #NotABlip case for #Netflix . (Or, that sub numbers are at or near the top +/- 15-20%) (1) 120M Nielsen HHs, 2.5 per. (2) Free #OTA is getting better, esp if @LocastOrg wins. (3) TV OEMs coming w vengeance.

2/ (4) Devices: Roku, Fire, Chromecast – exactly zero of them will back out of the game. (Nflx should buy Roku before it’s too late!) (5) Social platforms – Yt, Tw, Gram – they’ll finally get their butts in gear. (6) These major channel owners, I will have to subscribe.

3/ Meaning – if I don’t get ABC CBS NBC and FOX, I need to get the anchor Skinny bundle of course, assuming I don’t do OTA. (7) Niche, Sports, Fandom, need to leave room there too.

4/ SO: Bottom line? How many $50+ subscription? 1, if that. How many $15+ subscriptions will I have? 2? 3? 4? And there are like, let’s project out a few years, 15 compelling #OTT offers. I’m not sure, I’m just saying, they aren’t a slam dunk to be in the base “must-have” zone.

5/ Ppl forget – #netflix was born of the home entertainment biz – not the TV biz. Home ent is a smaller biz than TV. They are all not the same, just cuz they involve video. So for that reason, I think it’s 55% likely that Netflix is at or near peak subs. Thx for listening 😁

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